Wednesday, 20 July 2016












It’s that time again: the possibility of penalty shoot-outs looms large in Euro 2016 now that we are entering the knockout phases.

      

We kick off on Saturday June 25 with Switzerland v Poland and Wales v Northern Ireland, though those with a taste for bloodsports might prefer to look forward to the possibility of another England v Germany penalty showdown in the semi-finals.

It wouldn’t be the European Championships if one or two footballers didn’t end up going home knowing their team’s exit was because they fluffed an all-important spot kick. During the group phases we have already seen two players fail to convert a penalty in the normal run of play – Cristiano Ronaldo for Portugal and Alexander Dragovic for Austria.

It may be straightforward to shoot from 12 yards past a goalkeeper into an otherwise empty net, yet many very skilled footballers miss when it matters most. Even Lionel Messi, arguably the world’s greatest player, missed a penalty in the shootout in the final of the Copa América on June 26. His Argentina side went on to lose 4-2 to Chile overall.

Our research has consistently shown an interesting thing about the way players miss vital penalties – they often make the exact error they are trying to avoid. A player places the ball on the penalty spot in a tournament like Euro 2016 and tells himself, “aim left; just don’t hit the left post”. During training or a less important match, they would find the back of the net with ease every time.

But this is a high-pressure match – a stadium full of screaming fans and hundreds of millions of viewers around the world watching him take those steps back. And more often than not, the player who misses won’t have kicked the ball wide of the post or over the crossbar. He’ll have kicked it precisely at the left post. Since this is the thing he set out to not do, we call it the “ironic error”.

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